DOING BUSINESS, AN INDEPENDENT EVALUATION : TAKING THE MEASURE OF THE WORLD BANK-IFC DOING BUSINESS INDICATORS

Doing Business (DB), the annual World Bank- International Finance Corporation (IFC) benchmarking exercise launched in 2004, is one of the Bank Group's flagship knowledge products. It aims to measure the costs to firms of business regulations in 178 countries and ranks the countries along 10 dimensions. It also aims to advance the World Bank Group's private sector development agenda by motivating and informing the design of regulatory reforms, enriching international initiatives on development effectiveness, and informing theory. By ranking countries and spotlighting both leaders and laggards, DB has attracted the interest of senior policy makers and is claimed to have inspired reforms on business climate issues. DB's lively communications style has helped give the DB indicators an international profile. The report has five sections: the first chapter reviews the intellectual underpinnings of the DB indicators. The second chapter reports on how DB collects and assembles data. The chapters third and fourth discuss the relevance of the dimensions measured by the exercise and their use inside and outside the Bank. And finally, chapter fifth presents findings and recommendations.

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“Independent Evaluation Group. 2008. Doing Business, An Independent Evaluation : Taking the Measure of the World Bank-IFC Doing Business Indicators. Washington, DC : World Bank. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/6467 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”

GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS: THE TURNING OF THE TIDE?

Overview

After reaching 3.1 percent in both 2017 and 2018, global growth is expected to decelerate over the next two years as global slack dissipates, major central banks remove policy accommodation, and the recovery in commodity exporters matures. Amid moderating international trade and tightening global financing conditions, growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is projected to plateau, reaching 4.7 percent in 2019 and 2020, up from 4.5 percent in 2018.

Global Outlook

Global growth is expected to edge down over the next two years, as global slack dissipates, trade and investment moderate, and financing conditions tighten. In EMDEs, growth in commodity importers is expected to remain robust, while the rebound in commodity exporters is projected to mature. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including the possibility of disorderly financial market movements, escalating trade protectionism, heightened policy uncertainty, and rising geopolitical tensions. EMDE policymakers need to rebuild monetary and fiscal policy buffers and boost potential growth by promoting competitiveness, adaptability to technological change, and trade openness.

Regional Outlooks

Growth in EMDEs is projected to reach 4.5 percent in 2018, before stabilizing at 4.7 percent in 2019-20. The ongoing cyclical recovery in most EMDE regions with a substantial number of commodity exporters is expected to continue in the near term, but mature thereafter as commodity prices level off. Robust growth in EMDE regions with large numbers of commodity importers is projected to continue. A close look at the economic outlook for each region follows.

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